East Hartford, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

636
FXUS61 KBOX 302111
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
411 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal system Friday into Friday night spreads rain for most
of Southern New England, although some mixed wintry
precipitation is expected for areas north of the Massachusetts
Turnpike. Drying out for the weekend. A quick moving clipper
system may bring minor snow accumulations to northern MA Sunday
night into Monday while areas south will more likely get a
light rain/snow mix or rain. Temperatures trend more seasonable
through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* Increasing clouds and diminishing winds early.

* Winds pick up over the waters and along the immediate coast early
  Friday morning.

Clear skies persist across southern New England this afternoon and
evening under the influence of high pressure. By 7-9pm high clouds
will begin to move in from southwest to northeast out ahead of an
approaching warm front. While the pressure gradient relaxes briefly,
our next frontal system approaches early Friday and a 45 kt LLJ
develops. However, model soundings indicate a robust low level
inversion which should keep the strong winds aloft. The trend in the
guidance has been a slower arrival/onset of Friday`s system so rain
shouldn`t arrive until after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Key messages...

* Rain moves in late morning/early afternoon, flipping to snow
  7-10pm.

The result of placement of the high to our east is a warm SW flow
which will act to moderate the airmass and bring temperatures above
freezing ahead of the precipitation`s arrival. Given drier air aloft
that will delay the precip onset as mentioned above, this gives the
boundary layer more time to warm as well. It means that freezing
rain is looking like less of a concern, though we can`t rule it out
entirely. At this point by the time of arrival of the rain (late
morning south coast, afternoon northern MA) BUFKIT soundings
indicate thermal profiles conducive to rain until the subfreezing
air is pulled south on the back end resulting in a flip to snow
around 7-10pm. While significant accumulation isn`t expected, a
coating to an inch is possible north of the MA Pike with up to 2
inches in the Worcester Hills and slopes of the Berkshires. All
precipitation is done by sunrise on Saturday as the low lifts into
the Gulf of Maine and much drier air is pulled in from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Cool and dry for the weekend.

* Quick clipper system moves through Sunday night - Monday light
  snow mainly in northern MA.

* Dry with seasonable temperatures Tuesday.


The weekend will start off unsettled as a system exits the region
Saturday morning. While the bulk of the precipitation will be exited
to the east Saturday morning, there is a low chance (< 30%) for
residual snow showers across east and southeast MA and RI ahead of
the cold front. Once the front pushes across(by late AM), conditions
dry out and cooler air continues to advect in. A few showers may
linger around the Cape and Islands through early afternoon. The cool
advection will allow for breezier NW winds to mix down with gusts 20-
30 mph. Highs will be cooler in the 30s. Similar conditions prevail
during the day Sunday with light southerly winds in the afternoon.

A quick moving clipper system moves across the region in the Sunday
night to Monday AM timeframe. There is still some uncertainty in the
track of the system which has lead to lower confidence in details
such as amounts and precip type. This will likely start as snow,
with the highest chances north of the Mass Pike. As warm air advects
north into early Mon, we may see more of a rain/snow or rain,
especially for locations south of the Mass Pike. Ensembles aren`t
highlighting potential for impactful accumulations. They continue to
show probabilities around 30-40% for 1" accumulation or more north
of the Mass Pike. Less certainty for areas just south of the Mass
Pike with wavering on how quickly the warm air gets into MA. Can`t
rule out a brief trace to light accumulation before rain mixes in
Monday morning.

There may be a period Monday morning-early afternoon where warm
advection will help temperatures rebound into the 40s before a
cooler airmass moves back in Monday evening. Temperatures lean more
seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday with more zonal flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance shows a system moving across sometime in the
Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. There`s a good amount of uncertainty
in the details (timing, amounts, precip type), but overall is being
depicted as a low impact event with light rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update:

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR, though with increasing VFR type cloud cover toward early
Fri AM. South winds around 10 kt.

Friday and Friday night: Moderate confidence.

Ceilings lower to MVFR-IFR levels as warm frontal precip moves
northward. Confidence is increasing that all precip will fall as
rain. SW winds around 5-10 kt ease and could become
light/variable, with LLWS possible. RA transitions to SN 02-06z.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely,
chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Decreasing winds today from the west at 25-30 knots this
morning, turning SW at 10-15 knots this evening. Freezing spray
remains a concern today as air temperatures remain in the 20s.
Seas decrease from 5-10 feet this morning to 3-5 feet this
evening.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of
rain, slight chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of
snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ230>232-250-251-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ235-
     237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ250.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Mensch
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...BW/Mensch
MARINE...BW/Mensch